华泰证券:汽车业二季度业绩环比将增长

 

    2009年3月，我国汽车销量创下了历史新高，同时库存再创新低。细分车型来看，交叉型乘用车和轿车销量延续了2月份的增长，大中客和重卡销量触底强劲反弹，但出口仍非常低迷。 

 

　　一季度特别是前两个月，低端车型的旺销使得乘用车呈现增量不增收局面；在销量同比增长的情况下，乘用车子行业一季度业绩将会低于去年同期。具体上市公司而言，乘用车中长安汽车(7.74,0.00,0.00%)、一汽夏利(6.14,0.00,0.00%)和上海汽车(10.60,0.00,0.00%)存在业绩同比下降的可能。二季度中高端乘用车销量将会有所恢复，建议关注上海汽车。

 

　　商用车中大中客和重卡行业一季度销量同比下降30%左右，宇通 (13.30,0.00,0.00%)、金龙汽车(7.69,0.00,0.00%)、中国重汽(22.00,0.00,0.00%)、和潍柴动力(31.36,0.00,0.00%)一季度业绩存在大幅下滑的可能。但我们看好商用车二季度销量表现，推荐宇通 和潍柴动力。

 

　　一季度极低的库存将会刺激整车厂商加大生产力度，零部件企业将会显著受益。汽车零部件上市公司中，我们推荐福耀玻璃(7.20,0.00,0.00%)、中鼎股份(11.55,0.00,0.00%)、巴士股份(6.77,0.00,0.00%)、一汽富维(13.86,0.00,0.00%)。